In August 2026, the risk profile for the dry bulk fleet in the northeastern Black Sea fundamentally shifted.
The region has seen a transition from zero statistical incidents to deliberate, targeted strikes on dry cargo vessels at the outer anchorages of Novorossiysk and Tuapse ports.
These mark the first such attacks in the 4.5 years of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Additionally, several vessels were attacked in international waters on approach to these ports or while underway.
Footage of the attacks released by Ukrainian forces can be viewed at the following link:
Between July 6 and August 12, over 220 vessels were attacked by Ukraine in the Sea of Azov and Russian Black Sea ports. The most recent vessels targeted were a bulk carrier approaching Novorossiysk to load grain on August 10, and a tanker vessel at Novorossiysk port on August 12.
The latest massive drone strike on Black Sea ports (Taman, Novorossiysk, and Tuapse) occurred overnight on August 12.
The number of port calls at Novorossiysk has dropped to historic lows.
Attacks on commercial shipping continue despite calls from UN and Turkish officials to halt them, severely disrupting navigation and the grain trade in the Black Sea region.
Ports of Taman, Novorossiysk, Tuapse, Kavkaz – critical risk
Recent strikes on bulk carriers at the outer anchorages of Novorossiysk and Tuapse during the first week of August confirm that dry bulk vessels are now active targets.
This threat extends equally to container ships and general cargo vessels. While port-based air defence systems mitigate risks for vessels once they are berthed, the outer anchorages remain highly vulnerable.
Black Sea international waters – high risk
Standard recommended transit routes in the eastern and northeastern sectors are now frequently exposed to attacks by uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Several vessels have already been targeted in international waters, including one container ship that sank following an attack.
CPC Terminal offshore Novorossiysk – risk under review
Attacks have ceased following a US request to Ukraine to stop strikes on vessels loading at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal, as reported by Bloomberg.
During the latest massive drone raid on Novorossiysk on August 12, part of the incoming UAVs approached via the CPC sector, where two tankers were moored at the Single Point Mooring buoys, but did not target the vessels or terminal infrastructure.
The suspension of attacks on the CPC terminal may signal the first steps toward stabilizing maritime security in the Black Sea.