Regional conflicts in the Middle East have heightened the security risks for merchant shipping, particularly for vessels transiting the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
Following the formal ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in October 2025, the leader of Yemen’s Houthi movement issued an order to suspend attacks on Israeli and Israeli-affiliated commercial vessels in these waters. However, a maritime security assessment for the Red Sea by Vanguard notes that this cessation is fragile and conditional.
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Houthi sources emphasize that the halt in attacks will remain in effect only as long as Israel refrains from renewed hostilities in Gaza. Any Israeli actions, such as airstrikes, military incursions, or perceived provocations, could trigger an immediate resumption of maritime attacks.
Vanguard further reports that, while isolated violations and low-level hostilities continue in Gaza, the ceasefire is largely holding, and Houthi activity has generally remained aligned with the current truce.
Offensive actions against vessels in the Northern Red Sea, at Suez ports, or north of 18N are rare, with no successful incidents reported as of 20 January 2026.
Nonetheless, there was a notable escalation toward the end of Q3 2025, including an attempted Houthi attack on a tanker on 31 August, approximately 40 nm southwest of Yanbu, Saudi Arabia, and the 2 September claim of a strike on a container ship using drones and a winged missile.
The United States Maritime Administration (US MARAD) issued advisories on 9 February 2026 regarding risks in the Gulf of Aden, Arabian Sea, and Indian Ocean, including piracy, armed robbery, and kidnapping for ransom, as well as threats in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman, including Iranian illegal boarding, detention, or seizure of vessels. GPS jamming and spoofing in the region also remain a concern.
To remind, the EU’s naval mission EUNAVFOR ASPIDES, launched in February 2024, has been extended until 28 February 2026. This defensive mission aims to protect merchant shipping across the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandab, Gulf of Aden, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Oman, and Persian Gulf.