Regional conflicts in the Middle East raises the security risk to merchant shipping, in particular vessels transiting the Red Sea and GoA.
Following the renewed intensification of hostilities between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, the Iran-backed Yemeni Houthis continue to target vessels transiting the southern Red Sea, Bab-al-Mandeb Strait and the Gulf of Aden.
The following comprises the latest information and intelligence which will allow members in carrying out their voyage risk assessments.
Ambrey threat assessment
Maritime risk management experts Ambrey issued a new threat circular on 15 March on the Houthis extending their area of operation. This is summarised by:
- The Houthis have threatened to extend their area of operations to include the Indian Ocean.
- The threat specified that Israeli-affiliated vessels would be targeted.
- The Houthis blame the American and British activity for the escalation – a targeting of American and British-owned shipping is assessed to remain within the Houthi target profile.
- Vessels transiting the Indian Ocean should conduct thorough affiliation checks.
- The recommended mitigation measures remain unchanged, however, are assessed applicable to identified at-risk vessels beyond the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
In reaction to the Houthi attack on the bulk carrier TRUE CONFIDENCE and the tragic loss of life, Ambrey has issued a threat circular (dated 7 March 2024).
Ambrey informs that the vessel fell into the Houthi’s targeting profile as several public database sites were providing outdated vessel information, and incorrectly showed the vessel as being financed by a U.S.-affiliated company.
It is reported that the Houthis warned the vessel ahead of the attack, and when the crew turned her around and drifted, they were then subjected to an attack using an anti-ship ballistic missile.
Ambrey has issued a threat circular dated 12 February which summarises the Houthi targeting profile. This includes the following points from their executive summary:
QUOTE
- The Houthis continue to target Israeli, American, and British-linked shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. So far in February, four vessels have been targeted by the Houthis, all with these affiliations.
- As well as the under-appreciation of historic links of vessels, there is a misperception in parts of the industry that having certain affiliations will altogether negate an attack.
- The broadening of Houthi targeting of Israeli-affiliations evidences that the target profiles are not fixed, and assessments should be revisited with every warning and event.
UNQUOTE
This follows their threat alert, which provides:
- Threats in the region have grown significantly, they are complex, and they are now over a wider area of operations.
- The situation poses a significant risk to life and the safety of vessels in the area.
- The Houthis have widened their targets and area of operations. An unprecedented international naval response has degraded their capabilities, but the Houthis have continued to attack shipping. As affiliated vessels reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, risk levels on other routes increase as weapon capability also improves.
- The international military presence, though significant, cannot ensure safe passage of the region. All available mitigation measures should be evaluated and considered.
- Iran has become more assertive in its response to U.S. sanctions, widened its area of operations, and acted in support of the Houthis. Reach into the wider region must be considered.
- Over the past decade, the suppression of piracy has led to the reduction of designated threat areas in the region. Somali pirates have now acted in international waters beyond the Indian Ocean Listed Area, where security provision has been limited, up until now.
- Security Risk Management companies must adapt their service levels to provide a comprehensive suite of services to support international shipping.
Industry associations’ guidance
An update that advised at that time, the total number of attacks to vessels was up to 59, with 42 ships known to have been directly targeted and 16 being hit, with tankers making up just over 20% of all ships targeted.
They further advise that they met with the new Combined Maritime Forces commander, who stated:
- that all the ships targeted recently were using AIS and all but one of the ships attacked by the Houthi could be linked to Israel, UK or US in some way.
- operation ‘Poseidon Archer’, which is a mission aimed to degrade the operations of the Houthis, has fired 140 missiles (both surface to air and air to air) at drones and missiles, with a total of 277 munitions dropped in Yemen on various Houthi sites.
- No expectation of any stop until a ceasefire, but that the Houthis were very clear that once a ceasefire occurred, then they would stop.
- multiple attacks by Houthis using anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBM), anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCM), unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), unmanned surface vehicles (USV) and small arms from skiffs have been recorded.
- additionally, several pirate action groups (PAG) have been seen operating at great distance from Somalia.
- Naval operations have also conducted defensive strikes against Houthi missile sites ashore and multiple missiles and drones have been intercepted by US, UK and French naval ships.
- French naval vessels have provided close escorting of certain ships which coincide with their national interests. However, no convoys are operating and there is no intent to start such operations.
- It is quite clear that the threat to shipping continues and, whilst the Houthi state that they will only target those with Israeli, U.S. or UK interests, in practice, the targeting is much wider. Industry will release new guidance shortly.
- For piracy, PAGs have been seen to be operating at very great distances up to 650NM from Somalia and have attacked both merchant ships as well as hijacking dhows.
Full report at the following link:
https://north-standard.com/insights/news/red-sea-security-threat-to-shipping/